The probability that the National Bureau of Economic Research will someday determine a national recession began in the U.S. between December 2025 and December 2026 has fallen below twenty percent.

After pausing for nine months, the U.S. Federal Reserve resumed cutting interest rates on 17 September 2025. The recession forecasting method we've used to monitor the odds of a recession starting in ...

SYDNEY—The prospect of a radical escalation in the global trade war in coming days has nearly doubled the probability of a recession in the U.S. economy in the next 12 months to around 35%, according ...

Torsten Sløk, Apollo's chief economist, says a US recession in 2025 is unlikely. The economy grew faster than expected in 2024, driven by strong consumer spending. Key risks for 2025 include tariffs, ...

(Reuters) -Goldman Sachs on Thursday trimmed its U.S. recession probability to 30% from 35% for the next twelve months on easing uncertainty around President Donald Trump's tariff policies after the U ...

The U.S. economy faces an “uncomfortably high” 48% probability of slipping into a recession within the next 12 months, according to Mark Zandi, Chief Economist at Moody's Analytics. Zandi shared this ...

Economists see interest-rate increases raising likelihood of recession to 44% in coming 12 months. Economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal have dramatically raised the probability of recession ...

JPM raises recession odds from its previous estimate of 40% S&P Global, Goldman also hike US recession probability Barclays, BofA, Deutsche Bank warn of higher recession risks RBC, UBS cut S&P 500's ...